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Prediction for CME (2023-07-15T20:06:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-15T20:06Z
CME Note: This CME is seen as a partial halo to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. This CME is associated with a C8.8 flare from AR13363 (S22W45). This CME may coincide with the DONKI entry with ID: 2023-07-15T20:13:00-CME-001. There is no clear arrival across all solar wind parameters.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-18T21:00Z (-14.0h, +14.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Jul 16 1245 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30716
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Jul 2023, 1244UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 177 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 175 / AP: 005 PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 011

 

... Another partial halo CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data at 20:06 UTC on July 15th. The CME is related to a C8.8 flaring from NOAA AR 3363 (beta-gamma-delta). The CME was associated with a type IV radio burst and triggered a minor radiation storm between 06:05 UTC and 09:05 UTC on July 16th. The bulk of the CME is expected to miss Earth and a rather weak glancing blow could be expected late on July 18th. ...

Lead Time: 56.12 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-07-16T12:53Z

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